Why Mean-Square Analysis Stops at Convergence in Probability
Series: Stochastic Approximation from First Principles · Part 21 of 22 Suppose the expectation and variance calculations give: $$ \mathbb{E}[\Delta_k]\to0, \qquad \operatorname{Var}(\Delta_k)\to0. $$What kind of convergence follows? From the Second Moment to Probability By the variance identity: $$ \operatorname{Var}(\Delta_k) = \mathbb{E}[\Delta_k^2] - \left(\mathbb{E}[\Delta_k]\right)^2. $$Therefore: $$ \mathbb{E}[\Delta_k^2] = \operatorname{Var}(\Delta_k) + \left(\mathbb{E}[\Delta_k]\right)^2. $$Both terms approach zero, so: $$ \mathbb{E}[\Delta_k^2]\to0. $$For every $\varepsilon>0$, Chebyshev’s inequality gives: $$ \mathbb{P}(|\Delta_k|>\varepsilon) \le \frac{\mathbb{E}[\Delta_k^2]}{\varepsilon^2} \longrightarrow0. $$Hence: $$ \Delta_k\xrightarrow{p}0. $$This is convergence in probability. ...